Wednesday, July 29, 2009

...like a chinese fire drill (or maybe treasury auction?)

Phew! Things almost got ugly there for a minute! I mean the GDP numbers come out on Friday, Gold is rising again and showing a beautiful chart formation, the euro vs dollar made a new high for the year, the treasury auction is this week and the Chinese are growing more and more discontent with are fruitless spending and printing of money which was causing the US dollar to come dangerously close to making a new low for the year. Thank God for the US dollar! Right when we needed it to, it came screaming up from the bowels of hell defying all logic, technicalities and fundamentals stacked against it!

If your buying into that, I've got a bridge for sale...

The cold hard fact of the matter is this, TWSAU (Those who stand against us) allowed us to run for a little longer than usual, then they pulled our leash. The amount of government intervention in the markets is obscene. (After all a bullish chart formation is always bullish...unless it's found in the gold comex, then its anyone's guess.) If they don't like it, they'll manipulate it. "Well why is gold going up?" cause the dollar is crashing. "Well why is the dollar crashing?" because you devalued it. "Well why was it devalued, I thought America was the most powerful country in the world, how come are money sucks?" Maybe it had something to do with giving 2 million dollars in "stimulus" money to promote astronomy in Hawaii, 2.2 million for the Center for Grape Genetics, ( yes that's no type-o, grapes, and genetics, just in case there is a grape or two that finds out late in life it happened to be adopted and now is feeling some way about that, we're covered. Heaven forbid they get too upset... no logically it's most likely an organization that attempts to create grapes artificially without using seeds. Cause after all, if the sh** hits the fan, at least we still have plenty of grapes.) and nearly 1/2 a million to combat bullying in schools... in Montana. (So if your in the chess club in a school in Wyoming, your S.O.L.)

The most important thing in the world for the "ladies" and "gentlemen" in our government is there ego. We just simply can not have a treasury auction while the dollar crashes. So them and there cronies intervened in there usual "treat the symptom not the cause" sort of way. Rather than take a few hundred million dollars and buy the dollar to spark some interest and prop it up a bit (which they did do a bit, as you can see from the recent, lets say, not quite weakness in the dollar the last 2 days) Instead they treated the symptom. So they spent there energy slamming gold and oil ( to prove their point), and they expect us too look at this and not see anything that is say... unnatural about it.

I assure you the day for illegal and immoral practices of such blatant manipulations in the market place has come. They live on borrowed time. In the words of Rick Santelli... "Call it what ever you want, the people can see the value of there home's decreasing and their day to day costs increasing" (Deflation argument= over, plain and simple.)

On Monday July 20th I said sell the gold market. If you had listened to me you missed out on a $4 further price gain in gold, and over a $25 price loss from there. On July 9th I recommended TRE. 1 Day later I purchased it at 2.72 If you had sold in a rough time frame from when I said to sell the gold market, you could have turned around and gotten anywhere from 3.03 for it minimum (The low of the day after I said sell, a 12.5% increase) to 3.38 (the high it hit 3 days after i said to sell.) A possible .68 cent profit on a 2,700 cost would have made you a possible 680 dollars in 2 weeks. That's 25% in 2 weeks! (Folks, if i was bad at what i do, I'd find another day-job.)

So where do we go from here? Right now gold has been slammed down to its major support line at 930. If it is able to hold and the dollar reaches resistance it cannot break in the mid 79 range, than this might be it for this downward leg. Next stop will be to recapture the mid 940's and on to our all important 960. If that doesn't happen, the 910-900 region will be visiting us soon after. It is imperative that the dollar be held up at this moment in time and 2 days worth of support seems like far too little effort. If I were to go with my gut, I'd say prepare for a double bottom at 905. So the game plan now is, if you sold all, stay in cash, if you sold half, keep the half, we may have an up-day soon, that could very well clarify the big picture more than it is now, but i DO NOT recommend this as a buying point. There are certain patterns that the gold stocks and gold all have in common when things are going to turn one way or the other. One is the RSI. When the RSI on gold itself reaches near the 35-40 mark, I believe that will be the time to buy. In addition the gold stocks seem to have the same situation in between the 35 to 40 mark. The funny thing is, how quickly it fell. At the drop of a hat and every bull is now a bear, far to soon and far to violent for my liking, or too maintain such a pattern. Tomorrow will be a gleam of light for the remaining bulls. Either a break-even day or a few dollars up, before moving downwards further. Again I think this is all centered around the RSI so do your own research and look into this. Spend some time and analyze. (As well as the dollar which it's RSI went from 37 to 72 on the hourly chart in 2 days, more than enough to reach into "Overbought" very soon, that is if the government will allow it.) I'll keep you informed on my thoughts.

The dollar is on life support. Literally. Just keep that in mind.
Stay strong. With every dollar spent on every illegal short, "Those Who Stand Against Us" stand closer and closer to us, then they think (or would like for that matter.)

-J

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