Monday, September 21, 2009

Barrick Gold=Sacrificial Lamb

Barrick Gold Corporation (or as I prefer to call, them Fuck-Shit gold corp, as that is the literal translation of it.) is the biggest gold miner in the world. I generally never talk about them and for good reason. Barrick has hedged or sold future production for years as gold prices have skyrocketed. They still have contracts to sell at $350/oz. (Mining costs are about $600/oz.) Essentially this is the situation with this company: They are not a gold miner, at best they are a bankrupt financial institution, at worst a group of drunken sailors gambling with the shareholders money.

The biggest miner in the sector does not believe gold prices are going up, so they sell there future production away for pennies. What kind of message do you think that sends to people about gold? (Not to mention there 2009 oil prices were hedged last year at $100/barrel, which makes no sense whatsoever. The common thread between the two being a declining dollar so if oil goes up, what do you think will happen to gold, or for that matter all commodities? Selling there profit short, buying there cost at the top, diluting the company to cover the difference...there's value for the shareholders...) Now as gold reaches prices higher than ever, Barrick has no choice, they have announced they will eliminate there hedge book...again...then they announced really it will only be some of it, because in reality they can't afford to. Their plan to accomplish this is to dilute the company some more, actually by 10% so that's another 80 million shares issued at 36 so that's almost 3 billion dollars, that should cover the hedge book right? Not even close. Barely 30% in fact. Another point to bring up, where will they get the gold? They won't. They will pay there hedged contracts market price for gold in cash. Cute trick huh? Pay for gold, and get paper.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is what happens when you go to bed with the government (Goldman Sachs/ J.P Morgan) Barrick, being the gold production monster it is has for years now provided Goldman and Morgan with the gold they sell to cap prices from going too high. Now they will pay for it dearly and no one will shed a tear. When the shareholders in Barrick realize just how bad this mess is, they will revolt, abandoning the stock all together leaving it open for attack by the shorts. As Jim Willie so brilliantly put it "How many decades of profits will be lost due to there reckless hedge book?" Gambling. Unsuccessfully too. Barrick Gold will fall. Hard. 7.2 million ounces of gold production a year will be in jeopardy, and the largest gold miner in the world (who never believed in it to begin with) will ironically become the sacrificial lamb that sends gold to 1200 and beyond. There has constantly been false reports about a merger between Barrick and Newmont mining. They are always discredited. Barrick wants Newmont's gold, scratch that NEEDS their gold, Newmont wants Barricks operations, but neither one of them will ever agree with each other because of there "policies". Simply put Newmont has never hedged. That will pay off for them soon.

I have a point of writing this of course, which I will now divulge. Newmont mining sold senior notes and has incorporated some debt recently to raise cash. A few monthes ago, Newmont bought back nearly 1/5 million shares outstanding on the company bringing it from 650 million to 465 million, a small tally for a monster gold miner like Newmont, being that Barrick has 2x that. (I will post a link to this article below) Needless to say, Newmont has some room to run in the Shares outstanding field. Lets not forget that the biggest un-hedged gold miner is probably making some good money on gold's recent climb. (Are you starting to see where I'm going with this?)

When the public finds out about the disaster that is Barrick, share prices will plummet. Under 20 or worse possibly. At which time, for a combination of cash and stock, the second largest gold miner will buy out the first, bringing Newmont Mining's annual production to over 13 million ounces a year, miles away from the next closest competitor, Anglo Ashanti at 5 million.

Now, I always say never trty and plan a take over, cause you can be assuered if you do that it won't happen. I thought for times that IAG would get bought when it was still 7-8, I thought Newmont might buy Yamana out after it sold 3 mines leaving it fairly tempting. Agnico Eagle has tripled there credit line while IAG prepares to open a monster gold mine less that 5 miles from there Flagship LaRonde... hmm. All are suspicions, educated guesses. If Newmont is able to act quick enough there will be no guessing about it. They will NOT miss their opportunity to bring them to number 1. This "theory" I am almost 100% about. We'll say 92% for now. Another prediction for the wall.

3-6 month time line predictions:

Gold will trade at 1250
Oil will trade at 90 or better
The Euro will reach close to 1.60 conversion rate
The dollar will reach .7200
Newmont mining will buy Barrick Gold.

Pay attention. This could be beyond huge...


Barrick Gold, ripe for the bear Raid

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Alchemy Financial Posts 30% Profit 1Q

In the beginning of June I opened a portfolio to manage the company assets of Alchemy Financial. My goal was to show in plain terms, why gold, why now and why Alchemy Financial. At the end of the fiscal quarter (which ended at the very beginning of September), the portfolio was up 30% from where it started a mere 3 months earlier. The goal of the company is to not only make money, but to focus our investments to gold for middle class investors who aren't necessarily "big" players in the market. What I am trying to accomplish personally out of this company is to also prove that we can outperform the best of Wall Street, and prove that you don't need a high priced fund manager to rob you blind and give you mediocre results. Three months in and so far an unbelievable success. Although Alchemy Financial is not officially open for business yet, (Target is January 2010) I wanted people to be able to see the potential there money has to offer them. Unlike a lot of fund manager's who won't always let your money go when you want it, you can come and go as you please, if you ever decide to cash out your portfolio with Alchemy Financial, a check will be sent to you in a matter of days. Our fee's a fair and straight forward, we make 25% of all profits. If you don't make money, we don't make money. Period.

If you have not had a chance to check out the website, it is

If you are interested in investing with Alchemy Financial email me at


Monday, September 14, 2009

A letter to China...

I hope and pray that when what we know is going happen does, that China is able to show more diplomacy, ethics and good sense towards the American citizen's than we show to them...

Let me start by saying America is NOT comprised of 304 million "Joe Kerns" and "Steve Leismans". Those jobs are reserved for the few hundred of us who have absolutely no understanding of economics or financial markets, so that they can inevitably lead the rest who are dumb enough to follow to financial slaughter. In Jim Cramer's words ( And I hate to do this, and wouldn't, if it wasn't so appropriate...) "They know NOTHING!!"

Over the past year American's have watched the two biggest investments they made tank: being their homes and their stock portfolios, all of which due to no fault of there own, other than buying at the top. (I can't sympothizes over there 401k's there homes however is a different story, being that regardless of the housing market, if you need to buy a home, you need to buy a home. It's not like people can sell there properties and wait 9 months till the market declines to find a new place to live. Most American's have little to zero understanding of such things to begin with. They buy a home, they start a family and try to live the best life they can afford on there modest 9-5. These people cannot be blamed for this mess, or for trying honestly to grab there own little piece of happiness, or what we like to call "The American Dream".)

Bringing us back to today, American's are not fooled by the tricks in Washington. The value of their homes is significantly lower, the cost of living is significantly going higher, and the money that wasn't lost in market last year is sitting in a bank account, or even a mattress collecting zero interest and being devalued by each and every breath they take. This of course, is all while government numbers show 10% of America is unemployed and private studies show this number closer to 16%. They see what's going on, they just don't know what to do about it. Your voice has represented the voice of of the ignored and unheard American's. Those who claim to be "First in business worldwide" criticize and even insult you for anger and deep concern over our rampant and fruitless spending of money, growing debt and lack of results to show for it all. They want to imply that because of all of our debt that you hold that you are foolishly "shooting yourself in the foot by talking down the dollar" as if your talk is the sole reason for is plummeting. They want to believe that you are stuck with us, that we can get away with this and there is nothing you can do about it because ultimately, we are better than you. (All while these drastically miss informed, self proclaimed "know-it-all's" miss the fact that you have shortened your maturities, loaded up on gold and told your citizen's to do the same.) Well I assure you that the REAL America stands with you. The "fallacy" that a weaker dollar is good for anything is just that, and we know it. It will only be a matter of time before everybody realizes that their "weaker dollar is good" theory just got pushed to far, and shows no signs of stopping.

Please understand we live in what is viewed to be the land of the free. It is nothing of the sort, as history shall prove. We enslaved men based soely on the color of there skin. We imprisoned Japaneese men, women in children in "POW type camps" only fractionally better conditions than Nazi Germany gave to there Jewish prisoner's, based on the ludicrous theory that these American Citizens all must be spies. Let us not forget that this "free" country, during the worst economic conditions it had ever seen, during a time when it was most needed, our leaders elected to serve our best interests made private ownership of gold illegal.

Our leaders will never tell us to buy gold. There ego's are too large. They are incapable of believing that they cannot play God and fix everything themselves. They would have us die trusting them and there worthless paper money. The problem with America is that our citizen's don't know where to turn to preserve there wealth, so must have not tried or jumped back on the stock market bandwagon that they were so violently thrown off of just a short time ago.

The fact that Gold is a hedge against inflation is a universal truth. The fact that Gold is best used as a hedge against the trust you have in your government is something few American's are around still to remember, but will soon figure out quickly and painfully, as this "free" country's history has proven.

The poor fools on TV know nothing of "not repeating the same mistakes of the past", as the continue to poke the "Sleeping Dragon" over and over again, with utter disregard for the possible
consequences of their actions. They are NOT America.

America stands with you. The more this begins to unfold, I hope you are able to see that and not judge this whole country for what the few and the stupid will say when there's a camera in front of them.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Congrats I am Gold!!!!

Iamgold closed at 14.46 on Thursday!!! Gee now aren't you glad I suggested you buy it at 11.30? I know I am as myself my father, my grandmother and our company all bought in. The last two days have been so hectic it's been hard to manage our accounts and update you at the same time. I think I don't need to tell you the obvious. IAG went to 14.60 high from 11.30 in two days. Yes, you should have sold. Hopefully you did. The market is starting to take notice that IAG is a $20 stock carefully disguised as a $11 stock. This morning there is a drastic pullback, as I anticipated, I believe that IAG may fall as far down as 12.50, but we will have to see. It will be a buy at the right price again.

As for GSS, needless to say my target of 2.75 has been seen and blown away. If you sold you were right to do so, however things will most likely continue up, and at such a large break out it's hard to price a buy in but I will say anything close to 2.75 is obvious.

TRE...(whew) What did I tell you? It has undeniably broken it's decline wedge formation and is headed to 4 eventually. It must first regain 3.38 and close above 3.50 before it will do so. Yes it was a long hold but even on a couple hundred shares purchased at 2.70 region will make it worth it when it hits 4. (which is highly likely it will stall at that point, but may continue. To far to foresee right now.)

As a side note, that BP I bought was one hell of a lucky deal after that "giant" oil discovery they announced 1 week later. No, I had no way to see that coming, but if anyone asks I'll say that "I'm just that good".

As for gold itself... it has been a nice run. The year long declining wedge formation was broken sending us a few dollars away from 4 digit territory. We made some money, so now what? I have a very simple answer...


Gold will pull back most likely to the break out point at around 980. Everyone "knows" gold can not hold 1000 so they will pile onto selling. And they may be right... for about 5 min. Do not miss opportunities to buy in. you might lose money in the short term but in a longer sense you will not care. 1000 will come and go onward to better gold's all time high of 1036. I have no idea, (nor does anyone else for that matter) how and when this will happen, but I do know that it will. It could be 5 min or a few days or 4 weeks I don't know but the month of September WILL NOT END WITHOUT A RUN TO 1000!!! Whether it holds the first time or backs off and regains a short time later is up for grabs, but you will not want to be out of this market.

Another note... There is no way to know how high and how fast this thing will go. 1050, 1100, 1250, 1500 who knows? But trust me on this, DO NOT TRADE IT!! Just hold your positions. For this move your gonna want big producers, i like GG and IAG for this move.

18 trading days left(tops) before 4 digits is realized. Are you ready?


Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Regarding my absence

I do apologize for the fact that I've been gone from here for the last 2 weeks. I believe the last call I made was the Goldcorp at 34. I called it a safe bet and it was. I sold it a few days ago at 37.10 and made $3000 for my company. Today it still hangs at the 37 level, if you bought it on my advice sell it today or tomorrow. I have been bombarded by so many things the last few weeks it's been difficult to devote anytime to this site, but I will try to more. If nothing else I will posts buys and sells and the targets prices for them for everything I buy personally or professionally. I like to give explanations as to why, but If you've paid attention you would have realized that majority of my calls are correct and will make you money so if there's no time for explanation, I would hope that there has been some level of trust built by now on my stock picks.

My current holdings are as follows... IAG at a price of 11.55, keep in mind 11.50 was the breakout point which has and will continue to serve as strong support, below that is support at 11.30 so buying at 11.50 is a good call that may pose an opportunity to buy more at 11.30 support. A rise to 12 is obvious and a challenge of the new 52 week high at 12.36 is itching to happen. Be sure to check hourly RSI on both gold and IAG. If both begin to fall toward 30 and IAG falls to support at either mark, it's a buy. (sounds like asking the planets to a line at once but it is actually the usual case) Remember, we buy into weakness and sell into strength and we will always make money. You need to but things when nobody wants them. Were watching hourly RSI's because daily has been uneventful. You will of course make more money on daily chart "swing" trades of course, but that is provided the RSI isn't flat, which has been the case recently.

Next is the TRE of course. Yes it's been a headache but do you see why I recommended it. I don't even remember how long I've held it now but what I do know is I bought it at 2.72 so at the 3 and teen levels I'm not complaining. Don't take the money and run just yet either, it will try to better the 100 day MA at 3.14 if a close above this level is successful, the next target will be 3.30, then to 3.50 and finally 4. When it reaches 4 I will give you my thoughts on it but for now 3.30 minimum is a given so just hold on.

GSS was sold on Friday as it was over bought. still not my target yet but it has a lot of resistance. My father bought it bake at 2.53 on Mon, that I do not recommend as of yet, although he has made money on it so far.

Finally BP. Yes British Petroleum. This one was for a lot of reasons. 1.) what I really wanted was a French oil company called Total SA (TOT) but some jerk off on CNBC told everyone to buy it when oil was up. Now it's been overbought for a week and I've been waiting for it to fall. However, BP looked great with a lot of support near the 51 level and looked as if it would challenge the 53.30 level. If it succeeded there was a lot of space in between that and 56.30 if not, I still made 2 points. Yes this site is about gold but oil is very nice too, as it also goes up based on the declining dollar, but is not usually as volatile to the price of the raw material. (they also pay great dived ends, like 5% or better.)

It's now 11:22 and things have turned down, and IAG is at the low of the day at 11.36. Buy it. If it goes to the 11.30 buy more but only if the RSI gets to or near 30 on the hourly chart. Our target is at least 12 and the time frame will be only a few days.

I'm sorry for my absence! Now, let's get back to making money!