Thursday, July 30, 2009

Heads were bulls, tails were bears.

Probably is how some of these people are doing there gold investing these days. Sure enough as I thought, The dollar was unable to break above the mid 79 region and gold retook 930. More interesting was the hourly RSI level which fell into way oversold territory yesterday at one point all the way to 20. Today, it was back up to a peak of 62. Oversold to overbought in 24 hrs or less. If this keeps up no one will be getting anywhere. Daily RSI is at 48, half way between over bought or oversold with a slight bias to over sold. What happens tomorrow will be anyone's guess. There is just as much an argument for going up as there is for going down, so my suggesting is hold whatever you got. Don't buy, don't sell. If your holding cash, hold cash. if your half invested stay that way. If your fully invested same thing. No use trying to gamble here.

The two biggest gainers in the mining sector today have been AEM which posted good earnings and my little GSS which i believe is gearing itself up to surprise a few people. As I write this TRE is at least back above 3, as we all anticipate any news from Mr. Sinclair.

Rick Santelli's grade for yesterday's treasury auction- D. The government will soon have to face the inevitable, as they are incapable of prevention, only prolongment.

As a note on tomorrow's possible action, hourly RSI on Crude oil is at the highest its been for as far back as the hourly chart allows me to see... a whopping 73.5... needless to say, overbought, and where oil goes, gold will follow.

Other than that, today's market action is far from surprising for me so i have nothing else to report. (WTF is up with the market? DJIA at 9200, S&P gearing up for a possible crack of 1000 today and Nasdaq already touching 2000? They do know that a weaker dollar is generally BAD for stocks right?)

Signing off my friends.


P.S if you've never seen it before, take a look at my new debt clock at the bottom of the page. you can click it to go to the site and get more info. 61 trillion and counting. 1 million every 3 sec.

"Couple billion hear, couple billion there, after a while were talking about real money."

Wednesday, July 29, 2009 a chinese fire drill (or maybe treasury auction?)

Phew! Things almost got ugly there for a minute! I mean the GDP numbers come out on Friday, Gold is rising again and showing a beautiful chart formation, the euro vs dollar made a new high for the year, the treasury auction is this week and the Chinese are growing more and more discontent with are fruitless spending and printing of money which was causing the US dollar to come dangerously close to making a new low for the year. Thank God for the US dollar! Right when we needed it to, it came screaming up from the bowels of hell defying all logic, technicalities and fundamentals stacked against it!

If your buying into that, I've got a bridge for sale...

The cold hard fact of the matter is this, TWSAU (Those who stand against us) allowed us to run for a little longer than usual, then they pulled our leash. The amount of government intervention in the markets is obscene. (After all a bullish chart formation is always bullish...unless it's found in the gold comex, then its anyone's guess.) If they don't like it, they'll manipulate it. "Well why is gold going up?" cause the dollar is crashing. "Well why is the dollar crashing?" because you devalued it. "Well why was it devalued, I thought America was the most powerful country in the world, how come are money sucks?" Maybe it had something to do with giving 2 million dollars in "stimulus" money to promote astronomy in Hawaii, 2.2 million for the Center for Grape Genetics, ( yes that's no type-o, grapes, and genetics, just in case there is a grape or two that finds out late in life it happened to be adopted and now is feeling some way about that, we're covered. Heaven forbid they get too upset... no logically it's most likely an organization that attempts to create grapes artificially without using seeds. Cause after all, if the sh** hits the fan, at least we still have plenty of grapes.) and nearly 1/2 a million to combat bullying in schools... in Montana. (So if your in the chess club in a school in Wyoming, your S.O.L.)

The most important thing in the world for the "ladies" and "gentlemen" in our government is there ego. We just simply can not have a treasury auction while the dollar crashes. So them and there cronies intervened in there usual "treat the symptom not the cause" sort of way. Rather than take a few hundred million dollars and buy the dollar to spark some interest and prop it up a bit (which they did do a bit, as you can see from the recent, lets say, not quite weakness in the dollar the last 2 days) Instead they treated the symptom. So they spent there energy slamming gold and oil ( to prove their point), and they expect us too look at this and not see anything that is say... unnatural about it.

I assure you the day for illegal and immoral practices of such blatant manipulations in the market place has come. They live on borrowed time. In the words of Rick Santelli... "Call it what ever you want, the people can see the value of there home's decreasing and their day to day costs increasing" (Deflation argument= over, plain and simple.)

On Monday July 20th I said sell the gold market. If you had listened to me you missed out on a $4 further price gain in gold, and over a $25 price loss from there. On July 9th I recommended TRE. 1 Day later I purchased it at 2.72 If you had sold in a rough time frame from when I said to sell the gold market, you could have turned around and gotten anywhere from 3.03 for it minimum (The low of the day after I said sell, a 12.5% increase) to 3.38 (the high it hit 3 days after i said to sell.) A possible .68 cent profit on a 2,700 cost would have made you a possible 680 dollars in 2 weeks. That's 25% in 2 weeks! (Folks, if i was bad at what i do, I'd find another day-job.)

So where do we go from here? Right now gold has been slammed down to its major support line at 930. If it is able to hold and the dollar reaches resistance it cannot break in the mid 79 range, than this might be it for this downward leg. Next stop will be to recapture the mid 940's and on to our all important 960. If that doesn't happen, the 910-900 region will be visiting us soon after. It is imperative that the dollar be held up at this moment in time and 2 days worth of support seems like far too little effort. If I were to go with my gut, I'd say prepare for a double bottom at 905. So the game plan now is, if you sold all, stay in cash, if you sold half, keep the half, we may have an up-day soon, that could very well clarify the big picture more than it is now, but i DO NOT recommend this as a buying point. There are certain patterns that the gold stocks and gold all have in common when things are going to turn one way or the other. One is the RSI. When the RSI on gold itself reaches near the 35-40 mark, I believe that will be the time to buy. In addition the gold stocks seem to have the same situation in between the 35 to 40 mark. The funny thing is, how quickly it fell. At the drop of a hat and every bull is now a bear, far to soon and far to violent for my liking, or too maintain such a pattern. Tomorrow will be a gleam of light for the remaining bulls. Either a break-even day or a few dollars up, before moving downwards further. Again I think this is all centered around the RSI so do your own research and look into this. Spend some time and analyze. (As well as the dollar which it's RSI went from 37 to 72 on the hourly chart in 2 days, more than enough to reach into "Overbought" very soon, that is if the government will allow it.) I'll keep you informed on my thoughts.

The dollar is on life support. Literally. Just keep that in mind.
Stay strong. With every dollar spent on every illegal short, "Those Who Stand Against Us" stand closer and closer to us, then they think (or would like for that matter.)


Monday, July 27, 2009

Still "Flagging"

Here we are on another Monday, which is usually a bad day for gold, and gold futures touched 960 today. Hmm... Then 9:30 rolls around and TWSAU waited just long enough for you to buy some gold stocks at the opening and slammed the price down 5 min later "ha serves you right gold bugs!" As sicking as it can be remember, they use paper contracts to manipulate you out of your gold. It's like the population of Texas fighting the population of New Hampshire. Only NH has tanks and Texas has swords. Sure were out numbered and they'll attack the living hell out of us for a while. But remember, for every one dead New Hampshiren (Is that a word) There is 300 dead Texans. We will prevail in time. And the time is sooner than you think.

The action in gold continues to flag. Which is bullish and also annoying. My reason for saying sell is being more confirmed. Majority is bullish on gold, meaning there is less money to buy in to it (making prices rise) This stalemate is predictable, and the action has been confirmed in the majority of the gold stocks which are also "flagging". If you ever are in a situation such as this one, and are unsure as to the next step in gold a wise plan is to sell half. If gold/ the stock drops, you now have the ability to buy more an offset your price (unless you think it still has room to go) If not, you still made money, and at least the cash you have didn't change either.

I'm beginning to wonder where TWSAU have been this whole time, as we are overdue for a pullback and the only time i see them appear is to cap off the buying of gold after it has climbed a few dollars. (hence why we haven't had any $10 up days either.) The mid to high 950's seem to be there "ok you assholes have had enough buying now" point because it is not a major resistance point nor is the 949-953 region a major support point but the buying seems to enter there and the selling seems to not want us to get near 960.

Now onto the individual stocks themselves. I've been having a hard time finding useful info on Golden Star Resources, GSS, but I expect to soon, and i promise i will not hold out. IAG has been flowing with good news for months and I expect the Q2 report to beat expectations. that combined with what will be a beautiful breakout at 11.50 with a little more help from the gold price should make for a great buy. However I would wait a little to see if we get that pullback, if we do then buy if we don't, anywhere from 11-11.50 is a good buy target because wants it does break, I believe it will be headed to 12.50. (GSS has a similar pattern and with some help from gold and a good Q2 the same will occur. A viable target for them would be around 2.65-2.75, maybe more but of course you can buy 5x more of that.

As for my favorite right now TRE, its now down $0.20. Why? got me, people love to short this one. Also as to why Jim Sinclair hasn't had a press release as to what the plans for the company are for the rest of 2009 is beyond me because the news would send it screaming. (although if I had to guess I'd say he's seen it creeping up on its own already so is waiting a bit before releasing it.) This one I wouldn't wait for. How high it will go I don't know, but I can tell you it will go to 4, so buying it at the price it is now (3.13) is a no brainer.

Another boring day on the NYSE. Just remember, if we didn't have down days, there'd be no up days.


Tuesday, July 21, 2009

1000 again

Gold is at 950 right now. So that always triggers the debate of which will come first, the test of 900 or the test of 1000. Honestly I think we could be waiting till September before we see 1000 again, but that is the target in sight. I said yesterday that today we'd either "fall" or "stall" it appears to be the latter. If you sold yesterday good for you. This is one of those situations were you should sell half and ride the other half just to cover your bases. If that's what you did, your other half should be safe today. A pullback will come, you can bet on it, "Those who stand against us" will not let gold travel upwards unopposed. There are times when they brutally slaughter us, just keep this in mind: Although there are a good number of honest and legal shorts on gold and it's stocks, the slams we've become so used to are not. Naked, illegal shorting, in mass quantities. While the on going inflation/deflation argument continues, who would take the amount of money required to slam gold down the amounts we've seen and run the risk they might be wrong? (See above) TWSAU. ("Those who stand against us") I hope you understand who I refer to when I say this. Those who have the most to lose if gold continues upwards. (Not to mention those that have the financial means of trying to harbor it from doing so.) No, I'm not a conspiracy theorist. (well maybe a little) I have seen it. Massive selling of gold I mean were talking millions of dollars. If gold is 900, why would you dump 5000 oz on the market at once? If you hit it with 1000, the price will be dented but then recoup to 900 again. Then you sell some more, and so on. If you hit it all at once by the time the last of it sells, your getting 15 dollars less for it per oz! Man whoever doing that sure isn't looking out for their clients best interest! (Unless however, violent drop in price meant to scare you into selling low too, is the point.) I kid you not, pay attention to the Comex (Crimex as Jim Sinclair has coined it.) You'll see. You won't even have to watch long either.

The point is, that we buy gold as a hedge against government spending. The more money they print, the more gold goes up. Then they get worried about gold prices and come in to slam it down. (There by spending money they don't have, meaning they have to "create" more, and all together negating the purpose for why they do it to begin with.) They cannot change the trend, they can only prolong it, which they have been good at. But the more they continue to the more they lay down the bedrock for why gold will go to over $5000 oz or higher.

The moral my friends is to be patient. Don't get discouraged when you see this, its ok, just smile and recognize what's going on as TWSAU are incapable of seeing. There digging their graves for you. Buy on such slams and embrace what is to come.

And be careful out there, we're about do for one!


Monday, July 20, 2009

tsk, tsk...

If you didn't take my advice and buy when I called the bottom at 905, that's fine. My own grandmother didn't either... It can be hard to want to buy something that has spent the last month or so agonizingly plummeting, but keep in mind that's only your emotions talking, and fear can be one hell of a convincing emotion. This is an EMOTIONLESS BUSINESS!! This is why we have those little sayings. ( Bulls make money, Bears make money and pigs get slaughtered) ie: don't be greedy, you'll never regret taking a profit. (Or as my grandfather would say, "leave some money for the next guy.") The fact of the matter is kiddies, If the big slide spooks you, you might as well sit on the sidelines. (Did you get that analogy?) But like I said that's fine. If you've been following me since I started, you've made some money, (Or at least now realize you could have) If not, or if your new here, that's fine, this is how business is done. First we need to build a good repertoire. You heard me say buy and I was right, now I'm going to tell you to sell.

I don't know If I'm going to nail this one direct or not as I did with the buy, but it will be soon. The dollar will rally a bit and gold will rightfully have "those that stand against us" come in and push it around like its the retarded child on the playground. But it will be short lived. We will have to wait and see what happens. But for now if gold doesn't fall tomorrow it will "stall" tomorrow. The new founded bullish sentiment will wear off as the rest of the world awaits a correction and sells off too, leaving you far off from the best numbers of the week. (Sell it to them when they want it... another favorite of mine.) Don't wait for everyone else to figure out what I'm telling you now. By then things will be significantly lower.

The fact of the matter is, somethings have to happen based on certain events and somethings can't happen. We buy gold because it is the only true currency. And we await the day the rest of the world figures it out too, sending gold straight up for days. But my friends, that day is soon, but not today. Things are overextended through the top of the trading bands, and is far to steep to be maintained, (and the inverse for the dollar). Sell now, and await further instructions.

Good Luck out in those markets my friends, I know how rough it can be.


P.S I'm sorry my new stock quote application is not giving the up/down change numbers, but I added both the HUI gold bugs index and Golden Star Resources which is a stock I want to play around with. Check them out.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Calling bottom at 905

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say buy. I'm calling the bottom at 905, and here's why:

1. Gold is hitting below the trading bands at 905 which is generally a buy signal anyway if you wanna leave it at that.

2. As I've said before when I've so many times stated that gold will not fall below 930, In these situations today that we face a price for gold below 930 oz CAN NOT BE SUSTAINED!! Yes you will see it go beyond there, the powers that be that hate the gold bulls are good at shattering our hope, but they cannot stop the trend! They can only delay it. (I know it sucks, I'm impatient too.)

3. In September '08 gold fell from its high at 990 till it hit a low of 700 in Nov. That was a 30% decline. In April gold fell to 865 from it's high at 1000... a 14% decline...( half of a 30% decline) now gold has fallen from 990 again to 905 an 8% decline... notice a pattern here?

Consolidation will continue more on the up side now. Continue to trade with caution. this summer will be spent as most in the markets...dull. But in that time we will work are way up to what I presume to be 1080 by September. (Possibly 1050 or meeting of the old high at 1035.) Can you guess what will most likely follow then? a 4% decline, then 1200 will greet us soon.

If you want a good stock to trade on this, I have a great one. TRE Tanzanian Royalty Exploration. This is Jim Sinclair's company, the company owned by the guy who called the gold market within 13 dollars in the 80's, then went and started a cable tv company. TRE is a short sellers delight, but it wouldn't be if they knew what he was planning. His properties in Ghana west Africa have so much gold on the surface, he's gonna send trucks in there to rake up the gravel and just pick it up. the bring it to the mill where they expect to be pouring gold bars by the END OF THIS YEAR!! Do you know what happens to a gold stock when they announce they poured gold for the first time? They usually double. At least. Plus because there picking it up off the ground there expecting a cost of $50/OZ!! Sinclair is a family friend of mine, and he is so kind you can call the CEO (him) at his home! This is a $6 stock by Jan guaranteed.

This is a bull market remember, buy on pull backs. Next target will be to take back 930.