Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Brief comments on today's action

Ok briefly here, today's action in gold was important even though not substantial.  A move lower was definitively rejected at both a support point as well as the 50 day MA.  The fact we did not quite get to the low range of our wedge, as well as hold lows at 1700 or below for long periods, screams of value buying coming in.  MACD was set for a nice bullish crossover.  If you pay attention, you've probably seen enough times with gold that that happens only to fail and roll right over... as if by magic...  the resilient move today will most likely foil those plans of the powers that be.  It looks from here as if we will definitely make a stab at 1750 again, provided we can maintain above 1720 area for a bit.  If we bust through that region, 1800 is a given, which should be propelled easily after the break of the wedge formation.

Just remember from a trading aspect, don't buy in an anticipation of a chart formation break out, it might not pan out.  Buy the break out and sell soon then wait for a pullback to buy again, if your looking for a trade.  Especially in the case of wedges, as a friend restated to me the other day, 90% of the time in my experience, a wedge formation that reaches its apex without a significant move one way or another, will most likely eventually break down.  Remember "what can't go up, must go down and vice versa".

Regardless, lets say this, I suspected we wouldn't see gold start making a move till late nov.  its now early dec and we are at least showing promise.  if we break out buy years end a rally could last on gold for 2-3 months, and show us an easy say, 2100.  HUI, that could be 650+.  Point is, my original gut, fundamentals, and technicals are coming together at the same time, and thats usually served me well... make you own assessment.  below is the chart. 

And remember, be careful out in that financial world, it's scary.


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