Monday

Yesterday was one of the best buying days I've seen for a while. I'd hope by now you wouldn't need me to have told you that yesterday. Hourly RSI's on gold and the stocks fell to the floor and were easy to recognize the opportunity. IAG fell like a stone (finally) as did a few key others particularly Goldcorp. On the IAG front the breakout was forced and premature if you ask me. The hourly RSI fell yesterday but daily has a ways to go yet. Goldcorp yesterday fell to the bottom of the trading bands at the very key 33 level. Daily RSI was in the 30's as well as hourly, and hourly gold. It's at this point a pretty good trade. Today is mildly better but not by much. I bought GG at 34 yesterday with a target of about 36 or more on it in a relatively short time frame. Things haven't stretched far today so if you can pick it up close to 34 its a safe bet. IAG is looking strange at the moment in it's performance, as it has been while it was climbing now it looks strange in it's descent for all the same reasons. I'd stay away for now at least.

As for GSS and TRE if your still holding them, that's ok. (I am btw) We will most likely not have a press release on TRE till they produce the gold, so there's time to get in time to get out and time to trade. However don't sell now, it has tanked but the RSI is pitiful and frankly up is the only way left for it. You'll be able to get above 3 for it soon. GSS got murdered yesterday but is still looking good. I don't think it will take much to push it back to the 52 week high which is now close enough to our 2.70-2.75 target at 2.69 to sell it.

Quick note on the dollar is this: The former important support line at 79.60 is now the resistance it will need to break to continue upwards. It won't. Upon reaching it it will begin declining. The closer it gets, the better a buying opportunity on gold.

In an unrelated note, thank good for the pre-season! 6 months with no football is just too long, and boy am I glad to see my Raiders kill the cowboys last week! Maybe we stand a chance this year. Anyway...

-J

Apology

I apologize for my absence most of this week, but there was very little to talk about. Gold has gone down or broken even which is what I would have expected for this week as the sentiment on it is mostly bullish. Today was better than most but still lacked anything of excitement. If you have really quick fingers you may have been able to cash in on one of the 2 opportunities that were presented to pick up the IAG when it fell back to the break out point. If you did your making some money now, If not don't worry about it, I wasn't quick enough either. Another nice opportunity was the GSS yesterday and the day before. GSS reported there Q2 and everyone "sold the news" pushing it down to about 2.32. The next day they came into the market wondering why they sold and bout everything right back again and GSS closed up .22 or 10%. Nice! I still believe when it breaks this resistance on the weekly chart and the now new 52wk high 2.75 would be a modest place to sell, although we could go higher. 2.75-2.90 I believe will be the next leg up until we get another fall down to the break out point at 2.40-50 again. That will provide for a nice buying opportunity again. If your not in a trading mood recently fine, feel free to hold it, it will be in the 3 region before you know it, which is why this will not be just a one time quick buck on a nice breakout. I will of course continue to follow the company. (I forgot to mention a exploration report should be out soon too, I will have to get the exact date for you.)

It's been a pathetic week with that whole fed thing yesterday, so hopefully next week everyone is bearish on gold it should provide some nice moves up.

-J

P.S. The IAG hasn't much led up. There were about 10x that you could have bought it and made money, but i will tell you when to pull the trigger when everything looks right. It's still going to 12.50 then to 13 and 14, so we have plenty of time.

Why we always leave some cash...

As I sat watching the market's action this morning around 8, or so Gold, rolled around on CNBC down $4 A nice modest loss due to some strength in the dollar. The next time it rolled by, it was down $14. "TWSAU" are at it again. Remember bull-markets are described as steady movements upwards followed by short violent corrections to the down side. Likewise, bear markets are the exact opposite. Just look at the USD index and tell me what that looks like. The dollar is dead and anyone buying into it has the attention span of a flea. Unfortunately such things is how these market's have become, an emphasis on the need to make money on something ANYTHING every day no matter what. Whether we chase prices up or down buy on high RSI's or whatever, we break all rules for the money... Gamble-holics... go to Vegas we don't want you here. The same guy on the floor of the NYSE buying Goldcorp right along with you will be the same guy who bought AIG last week (and apparently still is) How desperate are we to make profits that we will buy up a stock of a company that is still selling for -.08 times earnings and pays no dividend has no decent prospects and has the government supporting most of it. Don't be a sheep, you will make more money than you can dream of in time.

The drop in gold fits right along with a trend line that has been in place since 905, so I like gold here although things are making me rather unhappy. I told you to watch IAG as there earnings was last week and I thought it would surprise the market greatly. It did. And if you were ballsy enough to bet that they would beat expectations, you were right but you did just that...bet. this is not how I invest and is why I did not inform you to buy before the earnings. IAG is probably my favorite gold stock hands down, however, they are way within overbought territory and MUST fall eventually back to the break out point at 11.50. The breakout was premature, and pushed along by technical analysis traders based solely on their earnings report. The hourly RSI hit in the 80's on Friday and daily is about at 70. If you missed the boat, so did I, but it's the safer bet, the breakout still has far to go, and will at some point fade out and follow gold again. GSS is holding at it's breakout point and would be a good place to buy more as the target is still about 2.75 for the short term.

Sentiment this week on gold is way too bullish for my liking so I'm expecting a boring week. Like I said in the title, this is why we keep some cash on hand.

That's about all I got, as I've been not at my best for the last few days. I will keep you updated no matter how brief it may be.

Hold on...
-J

Hourly RSI

The weakness we've been waiting for has made a glimpse of an appearance. Gold is down $5, and hourly RSI has fallen to the high 40 range from the mid 70 range it was at yesterday. Now this is why we keep some cash on hand. If you are now 50% in cash, start buying in. I'd say go in 50% of your cash so you should still have 25% of your portfolio's value still in cash. Another Pullback is very possible but with such strength in gold recently I wouldn't want to take my chances one way or the other. The next few days could very well be some bouncing in this 960 range so lets see what happens, but a move lower on the dollar, as well as a push higher on gold towards 980 will soon be inevitable. The dollar has gotten slightly better daily RSI levels, as it was close to the 30 mark making it undersold. It now rests at 33, which is better, and still has room to go as the last few times the dollar was oversold RSI reached 26-22. Daily gold is at 61 leaving it room to run as well. (As a note action in the euro is beautiful as it is now "flagging" since its break up above 1.43 obviously waiting for a further decrease on the dollar. I've mentioned before to a few people on "investing" that don't have much liking for the market to take the cash from there savings accounts and open a brokerage account and have the broker hold the cash in Euros. If the Euro reaches the 1.60 mark, and I believe it will by the end of this year or sooner, you'd make 10% on your money by not holding dollars. Or should I say you wouldn't lose 10% like everybody else. If at all possible with your broker, hold all cash in your portfolio's in Euros. Trust me, you'll thank me in a few months.)

Onward to stocks. Gold's down today, if you listened to me on that GSS your beating the market today, and the rest of the gold industry as it is holding nicely up 3-4%. Were gonna hold this one still as the 2.70-2.75 target I have for this has not been realized. Depending on action in gold and a soon coming 2Q and exploration report Tues Aug 11 (next week) from them, that target may be moved up. I'll let you know. All though daily RSI on GSS is creeping up, It will still have room to run due to this picture perfect breakout, a move up in gold, a move down in the dollar or all three.

Next point of interest IAG will release earnings tomorrow morning. Although I expect them to be great I also expect everyone to sell the news. IAG is the next target after GSS breakout is complete. How this plan works is all up to gold and the markets response to IAG tomorrow. 11.50 is the 52wk high and it will be soon broken very similar to how GSS's was. PAY ATTENTION! This one is going to be important.

These markets are boring me so I'm taking the rest of the day off. Nothing to buy, Nothing to sell, on days like these, just go fishing, it's better than trying to force things.

-J

Put your pants on

Get it? Put your pants on? (or perhaps maybe cover your shorts?) If you spent the last 2 months walking around with a cinder block on your back, I bet when you took it off you'd move pretty quick too. Most of the shorts on gold have historically been in the 960 level. I'd imagine there are a few at 980 and probably the most at 1000, as everyone now knows gold will begin to fall seconds after each time it touches 1000. The best part about the action in gold today is the fact that the dollar isn't even down. It's been up or has broken even all day. Today the market is being very clear. The dollar is crashing, and at these levels of worth(lessness) in the dollar, gold is under priced, due largely impart to the shorts, make them have to cover, and watch out. So congratulations everyone we have now taken my favorite support point, 960. (It's my favorite due to the fact that it's a big point to have the shorts cover at, its a very strong support level with little over head resistance other than 980 which is not as rough to take as 960 is, and of course 1000 itself, and it's $10 closer to 1000 then to 900.) So 980 is the next target. If you want a great picture as to why a hit at 980 would be perfect, read Bob Hoye's article at 321gold at this link.. http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye080309.html

If you watch the trend lines, the top is at 984, give it a few days for gold to consolidate before we get there and it will taper off to 980 by the time we do. A break through this trend line would be so insanely bullish, you might just miss 1000 altogether if you make the mistake of blinking.

Now, I must note, that we want to buy into weakness which is bound to come soon on the part of gold. So if your partly in cash and in gold, perfect. You can buy on weakness and begin tapering off into strength as you make some money. (might I add, being invested in gold is so incredibly important, yes but you should always have some cash. It helps on the dips.) Anyway, the time to sell is not now, and the time to buy more is not now. If your shaving off some shares into the immense strength in gold now that's fine.

Onto the dollar. Nothing really new it's holding at its last point possible before 76. If 76 is realized, I believe a breach of 1000 will be too.

So now moving onto the stocks. Specifically my new one I recommended GSS. I recommended that and said I will be buying it on July 20th. It was 2.32 at the time. 1000 shares would be $2,320. The day I wrote about what is going on with the company it was at 2.45. It has hit a high today of 2.63 and I assure you it will be headed higher. That's a $340 dollar profit from when I first mentioned them, and a $180 profit if you waited for me to give you the "low-down"...thats just SO FAR!! I will reiterate, My target for this breakout is 2.70-2.75. $3 is not at all out of picture if gold raises to 980 or even 1000. (I bought it at 2.36 btw, yeah that would be some nice money there.)

We still wait on the TRE but at least its now at 3.12.

RSI is getting topped out, so the rest is all up to the dollar. things will most likely back off the highs by the close. Tomorrow is up for grabs.

We've done well!

-J

P.S IAMgold is reporting on Thursday, I highly recommend you pay attention and listen to the conference call, as that will be my next big play.

Umm...

My title for this post is umm simply because the best title I could think of to describe this week's drop 35 dollars and regain it all back before the week is over would be "Head's we're bulls, tails we're bears" but I kinda used that yesterday. The overall sentiment in the market for this coming week is the same as last week just flip flopped. 6 Bullish, 14 Bearish, and 3 that would prefer to abstain from voicing there opinion. (I think the 3 have the right idea In the words of my Grandmother/ Abraham Lincoln, "If you don't have anything nice to say, or you think that by saying it you would confirm to any speculators that yes, you actually are an idiot, than just keep your mouth shut." Or something like that.) Friday's can be odd, especially when the end of the week coincides with the end of the month, as it did yesterday, but the fact that the majority is bearish leaves the bulls plenty of room to run in the upwards direction. RSI is creeping up on the daily charts. It now sits at 58-59 for gold, oil, the euro Vs dollar, and platinum. (Brent is at 62) Point being that despite drastic gains in price the relative strength has yet to capture it old peak set a few days earlier at 62. RSI is tricky and can often be a double edged sword. You want it to go up because it shows, interest in buying, however to quickly and you burn out. But even once it gets to its old peak at 62, 70 is overbought and you can generally expect a turn soon. The increase is bullish, meeting the old peak would be more bullish, but leave us with little room left to run from there. Right now we're not too high and not too low, resting at a now major support/resistance point, on our way to the all important 960. So although Monday might show us some declines, I think for the week, we will show gains. (Before I forget, The dollar is back at the 52 week low. I don't know how long they will try to hold it up, as it will most likely be a long way down from there, but I'm going to work Monday ready for a fight.)

Now onwards to stocks. TRE...better... umm, you know what I'm gonna say about that...(We're waiting Mr. Sinclair...)

My focus now is going to be on the biggest gainer in the industry Friday. Golden Star Resources. (Remember guys, I called this one out to you on July 20th when it was about 2.20, and now its 2.46, after breaking its 52 week high by 7 cents for an overall gain of 20 on Fri. That's $250 on a measly 1000 shares. Oh yeah, and it's not done yet.) The point of why I do this is because you NEED to be invested in gold for the long term. But you also need to eat 3 times each day. If you were invested in anything gold Friday you made money if you were invested in GSS, you made more than the other guy. (The difference is your grocery bill, get the idea?) You should never trade on Technical analysis alone, you need to know the fundamentals behind it. However you also need to understand that good technicals (Chart) on a stock are TELLING you there's good fundamentals behind it. So here's what they are, straight out of the Vice President of Corporate Development, Mr. Bruce Higson-Smith's mouth.

Aside from all things "Exploration" going very smoothly, GSS is expecting production for 2009 to be in at 400-500 thousand oz. (Which they unfortunately had to hedge 1/4 of the years production 100,000 ozs due to the slam it got back in November which took it down to 40 cents a share. That hedge will expire at the end of the year and in the grand scheme of things is "peanuts" anyway.) There cost is an avg of $550 per oz which is high but still very good for a little guy like this. The company was able to significantly lower costs by reducing there rate per kilowatt hours to 6-8 cents. (It was 14 a month ago and 17-18 a year ago.) They have only 286 million shares outstanding which is good, as alot of juniors and exploration companies have little way of producing money in the beginning other than issuing ridiculous amounts of shares for pennies. To keep things in perspective, Newmont has 450 million, Yamana has 720, Goldcorp has 700 and my personal favorite IAMgold has only 360.

Now other than that, these guys are pretty damn smart. Mr. Higson-Smith knows what he's doing which is really good, because even when your sitting on a gold mine, an idiot could mess it up in a minute. (Did I mention that Mr. Higson-Smith wanted to hedge there oil cost for the year this December at $35!!?) They wouldn't let him unfortunately, but the man has the right idea and I like that. Getting back to the technicalities, It just made a new 52 week high Friday and is in the midst of a beautiful breakout, that I expect about 15% on. My target will be 2.70 min for the very short term. RSI is still friendly as well.

Well folks, that's whats going on, and now I'm really tired of typing. It's Sat, and I need to mow the lawn.

I'll see you on Monday! (Remember where your fightin' shoes!)

-J